CALM, AFTER THE STORM

By Kofi Akordor
THE Cote d’Ivoire electoral impasse has predictably but miserably dragged on. As the days roll into weeks, the militant voices which are very loudly calling for military intervention to enforce what they describe as the people’s choice are becoming fainter and fainter, being taken over, surprisingly, by voices of moderation. Those who made it look so easy to walk into another man’s country, change the government and walk out in no time, without a scratch, have been unfair to ECOWAS countries.
As we reflect, we begin to wonder where those machoistic voices calling for war to enforce election results came from. The Americans and the French, who were goading ECOWAS countries into battle against recalcitrant Laurent Gbagbo, seem to have lost interest and diplomacy, like the stone the builders rejected, is gradually being accepted as the surest way to resolve the impasse.
On hindsight, President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda said something which made some sense, considering the way the international effort at solving the problem was handled. He said ECOWAS was too quick to reject Gbagbo for Allassane Ouattara when the sub-regional body’s neutrality and mediating role should have been manifest.
ECOWAS and the other international bodies such as the AU and the UN should, first of all, have shown more interest in the election results to determine whether there were genuine grievances from both sides to be addressed. After clearing all doubts about the validity of the results, pressure could then be mounted to get all the parties to accept them and for Gbagbo to abide by the decision of the majority of the people, if that was what the results meant.
Unfortunately, ECOWAS, pushed by the AU, the UN, the US and its allies, dangled the military option before the diplomatic offensive. If the idea was to use the military option as a threat to cajole Gbagbo into submission, we have all realised, rather too late, that it was a miserable failure.
For the Prime Minister of Kenya, Raila Odinga, to issue military threats to Gbagbo and turn out to become an emissary of the AU was one of the greatest ironies of the times. Odinga could not be part of the solution, having come out forcefully with his war posture, apparently due to his bitter experiences in 2007 when he saw the presidency of his country slip through his fingers because of a Gbagbo-like Kibaki who defied majority decision and declared himself re-elected.
ECOWAS leaders have not explained the form the military option was going to take — whether to just airlift Gbagbo from the presidential palace in a commando-fashion or confront the Armed Forces of Cote d’Ivoire in a full-scale war which may take days, weeks, months or years to accomplish, with devastating consequences for the sub-region, especially neighbouring countries such as Ghana.
Whatever the strategy, anything with the semblance of a military operation will not offer any solution. One can, therefore, say that ECOWAS leaders have dug in too early. On a continent that has very little to show in terms of democratic credentials, it sounded quixotic to threaten military action for an election dispute when a determined sub-regional group such as ECOWAS has many options open to it to make a more meaningful impact.
At least, thanks to a lone voice which was very loud in the wilderness, ECOWAS has avoided being tele-guided from Washington, New York and Paris into a conflict that would have seen no end but only serve the interest of the metropolitan powers far away from the pain, suffering and destruction in a region already devastated by poverty and bad political leadership.
It is good that the AU, just like the ECOWAS, is now back-tracking more towards a peaceful resolution of the impasse. At the AU Summit in Addis Ababa, African leaders have agreed to set up a panel of mediators to begin another diplomatic offensive towards the resolution of the problem. Clearly, this turn of events will strengthen the hands of Gbagbo, who stood firm and demanded a negotiated settlement rather than stepping down.
In the coming days and weeks, ECOWAS countries will wait anxiously to see how the AU mediating panel will set out to do its work and whether it will achieve results where earlier mediators have failed.
What is encouraging and very much welcome is the fact that the battle drums are falling silent after the initial storm stirred by the US and France, giving way to a comforting calm which will engender more tactful and diplomatic effort to get to the root of the Ivorian crisis and come up with a lasting solution.

fokofi@yahoo.co.uk
kofiakordor.blogspot.com Calm, after the storm
By Kofi Akordor
THE Cote d’Ivoire electoral impasse has predictably but miserably dragged on. As the days roll into weeks, the militant voices which are very loudly calling for military intervention to enforce what they describe as the people’s choice are becoming fainter and fainter, being taken over, surprisingly, by voices of moderation. Those who made it look so easy to walk into another man’s country, change the government and walk out in no time, without a scratch, have been unfair to ECOWAS countries.
As we reflect, we begin to wonder where those machoistic voices calling for war to enforce election results came from. The Americans and the French, who were goading ECOWAS countries into battle against recalcitrant Laurent Gbagbo, seem to have lost interest and diplomacy, like the stone the builders rejected, is gradually being accepted as the surest way to resolve the impasse.
On hindsight, President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda said something which made some sense, considering the way the international effort at solving the problem was handled. He said ECOWAS was too quick to reject Gbagbo for Allassane Ouattara when the sub-regional body’s neutrality and mediating role should have been manifest.
ECOWAS and the other international bodies such as the AU and the UN should, first of all, have shown more interest in the election results to determine whether there were genuine grievances from both sides to be addressed. After clearing all doubts about the validity of the results, pressure could then be mounted to get all the parties to accept them and for Gbagbo to abide by the decision of the majority of the people, if that was what the results meant.
Unfortunately, ECOWAS, pushed by the AU, the UN, the US and its allies, dangled the military option before the diplomatic offensive. If the idea was to use the military option as a threat to cajole Gbagbo into submission, we have all realised, rather too late, that it was a miserable failure.
For the Prime Minister of Kenya, Raila Odinga, to issue military threats to Gbagbo and turn out to become an emissary of the AU was one of the greatest ironies of the times. Odinga could not be part of the solution, having come out forcefully with his war posture, apparently due to his bitter experiences in 2007 when he saw the presidency of his country slip through his fingers because of a Gbagbo-like Kibaki who defied majority decision and declared himself re-elected.
ECOWAS leaders have not explained the form the military option was going to take — whether to just airlift Gbagbo from the presidential palace in a commando-fashion or confront the Armed Forces of Cote d’Ivoire in a full-scale war which may take days, weeks, months or years to accomplish, with devastating consequences for the sub-region, especially neighbouring countries such as Ghana.
Whatever the strategy, anything with the semblance of a military operation will not offer any solution. One can, therefore, say that ECOWAS leaders have dug in too early. On a continent that has very little to show in terms of democratic credentials, it sounded quixotic to threaten military action for an election dispute when a determined sub-regional group such as ECOWAS has many options open to it to make a more meaningful impact.
At least, thanks to a lone voice which was very loud in the wilderness, ECOWAS has avoided being tele-guided from Washington, New York and Paris into a conflict that would have seen no end but only serve the interest of the metropolitan powers far away from the pain, suffering and destruction in a region already devastated by poverty and bad political leadership.
It is good that the AU, just like the ECOWAS, is now back-tracking more towards a peaceful resolution of the impasse. At the AU Summit in Addis Ababa, African leaders have agreed to set up a panel of mediators to begin another diplomatic offensive towards the resolution of the problem. Clearly, this turn of events will strengthen the hands of Gbagbo, who stood firm and demanded a negotiated settlement rather than stepping down.
In the coming days and weeks, ECOWAS countries will wait anxiously to see how the AU mediating panel will set out to do its work and whether it will achieve results where earlier mediators have failed.
What is encouraging and very much welcome is the fact that the battle drums are falling silent after the initial storm stirred by the US and France, giving way to a comforting calm which will engender more tactful and diplomatic effort to get to the root of the Ivorian crisis and come up with a lasting solution.

fokofi@yahoo.co.uk
kofiakordor.blogspot.com